…unless you live in Troy
Well into its adolescence or awkward 20-somethings, the
Knowledge Economy just got its birth certificate of sorts. To a rather fumbling thud, the Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA) decided to include research and development into the
calculation of GDP in their March 2013 Comprehensive
Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts reported this past week. This nearly 3% upward revision comes at a
time when the economic headwinds of sequestration - notably the shrinkage of
the defense sector - is placing considerable and growing drag on the economy. If timing is everything, than the BEA's
announcement is nothing.
Now to be clear, the
headline value of this week's announcement is two decades late but still
important. The fact that we've failed to
account for the engine of economic expansion - the genuine innovation of
products and services that have marked the past expansion cycles - is moronic. The fact that economists officially have
waited until 2013 to decide that their 1805 GAAP Accounting logic derived from France has
failed to describe our economic condition is an indictment on academic and
professional economists and their comprehensive anticipatory ineptitude. While they can precisely describe partial past
conditions that conform to their limited assumptions with better than random
accuracy, they have failed entirely in their ability to anticipate or respond
to forward-looking considerations and risks.
There's no small bit
of trouble with the BEA's late arrival into modernity. Research and development is expensed under
GAAP accounting into oblivion. In
taxation, the nuance of the In-Process Research and Experimentation Tax Credit
(the IRS' most abused tax shelter that it is "incapable" of policing)
is the subject of billions of dollars of tax fraud each year. Politically desirable as the pork that every
good Congressional representative can bring home to the district, this $76
billion dollar loop-hole doesn't support economic expansion. Rather it shrinks legitimate tax collection
and defrauds the taxpayer for the benefit of abusing corporations and their
interest holders. In banking, Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke is "not aware" of the use of intangibles (the
by-product of research and development) as collateral despite the Federal
Reserve's own 2007 report in which they estimated that there are over $3
trillion in borrower assets that are not counted in bank collateral
assessments. In short, we can have our
little welcome to the Brave New World economics party but, beware.
I hate to break some
news to you but I'm the Cassandra to the BEA's Trojan Horse. And if you don't know this metaphor, go back
and read the account of the fall of Troy . Cursed by Apollo with the "gift" of
prophecy, this daughter of King Priam knew that the horse left by the Greeks
was the harbinger of the downfall of Troy
but her warnings were unheeded. In the U.S. , we'd
scarcely recognize research and development if it were a snake biting our face.
Since the 1970's we've used R&D as a
mechanism to flow federal and state support to universities due to our social
apathy towards funding education; we've inefficiently underwritten R&D to
accommodate state-sponsored enterprise through our statutory agencies; and,
we've built a highly inefficient corporate tax regime that allows venture
capital to pour cash into enterprises and harvest tax losses in over 80% of the
failed endeavors. Real R&D - the
stuff that actually makes the world a better place; that brings new products
and services to the world - is endangered on the best of days and bordering on
extinction. Basic research - the kind
that made solid rocket fuel, that suspended magnetic signals in tape, that
figured out dyes on fabric, that understood the chemistry of the elements that
describe our world - is barely present. While we nuance the edges of consumer
electronics to jam more video processing into smaller devices so that we can
have a virtual world, the real world is more illusive today than it was 100
years ago.
The social schemes
of Natural Philosophy enabled a world of inquiry and debate. Great societies learned how to disagree with
reasoned arguments using more than 140 characters to communicate a thought. Hash tags and contractions did not navigate
the oceans or plumb the depths of space. In our make-believe world, we pretend that Boston 's carnage was a
new phenomenon. How quickly we forget Northern Ireland , Spain ,
and Germany ! Within my lifetime, terror hasn't emerged on
the scene. In point of fact, it is the
innovation of the marketing of terror which has been refined to an art form! London
wasn't safer because of police action. London became safer because the citizens of London were unwilling to
be cowed by terror and reopened pubs and restaurants in the face of carnage. New
York didn't become safer because of end of violence -
it became safer by a public that would not relent to the dereliction of the
city in the 70s and 80s. See, even when
it comes to social innovation, we're innovating less today than just 30 years
ago. And when it comes to that $400
billion - it gets really messy.
Our R&D and
"innovation" in the majority are proxies for legal costs and capital
markets inefficiencies. When Apple and
Google buy "innovation" from Nortel or Motorola, they're not making
new products. They're making sure that
extortionists cannot hold them hostage in patent lawsuits. When a government contractor selling
satellites misrepresents their ownership of technology and falsifies an
indemnity for this lie, it is the government and the taxpayer that loses. Our GDP, buoyed by innovation risk management does not grow our economy - it
memorializes our demise.
Equo ne credite, Teucri.
Quidquid id est, timeo Danaos et dona ferentes.
Virgil's Aeneid, Book II.
We the People should count innovation and celebrate the
inquiry into the unknown, undeciphered, and forgotten. We should not mislabel our litigious and
capital inefficiencies as innovation.