Life happens. Most of
the time, the sun rises, we go about what we’re doing, we start some things,
finish a few less and randomly bump into unforeseen moments and then, the sun
sets. If you’re reading this blog, there’s
a high probability that you’ve got some form of shelter, you’re connected to
communication with the outside world, you probably had a few meals in the past
few days and, with few exceptions, you’re living in relative peace and
tranquility. Furthermore, there’s a
better than even chance that for the majority of your life, this has been your
experience. Infrequently, you’ve been in
a car accident, have been evicted from your home, lost your employment, mourned
the loss of a dear friend, tasted violence, seen your efforts come to naught,
and contracted a fatal disease.
For many of us – dare I say most of the readers of this post
– life has been disproportionately good.
In statistical terms, most of us live in a distribution of events and
conditions which are like Garrison Keillor’s Lake Wobegon, “where all the women
are strong, the men are good looking, and all the children are above average.” Which is why I find myself so profoundly
puzzled by the proclivities I see for people to anticipate “risk”, “crisis” or “loss”
when it comes to their financial future.
Most paradoxical is the prevalence of this scarcity-laden fear among
those who espouse a commitment to be part of a societal transformation that
recognizes a more complete view of value and a more holistic view of engagement
with the ecosystem.
Now let’s examine a recent case example of this issue. I was at a dinner with a wonderful
group of friends. Sitting around the
table were individuals working in the fields of finance, aesthetics, education,
and public policy. If you were to ask
each of them for an accounting of the past year, you would find an overwhelming
majority of them reporting a near perfect record of calamity-free days. Sure, disappointments here and there but in
the fat mean experience, the distribution of good days would be far in excess
of the distribution of bad days.
However, ask the same group what would happen, say, if an equity market,
banking sector, or business failure would be imminent and these same
beneficiaries of excessive abundance immediately project a world in which words
like “survival” and “not making it” and “devastating” show up. Ask the same individuals to describe their
experiences in communities around the world with far “less” wealth (defined in
their paradigms) and invariably, they’d comment on how inexplicably “happy” “those
people are”.
Now I’ve discussed the illogic of the empirical and
statistical schizophrenia of observing the reproducible tacit experience of
life and choosing to energize a disproportionate obsession with crisis
scenarios in the implicit illusion of devastating models of the future. While continental Europe gave us the notion
of risk being the loss of value in the face of possible success, life
demonstrates persistent sustenance in the face of rare and infrequent
loss. In other words, it’s more likely
that we’ll have something for which we should be grateful than have something
to fear – yet, when looking into the shroud of a scenario-laden future, fear
seems to prevail. Our prophetic skewness
is disproportionately negative in a world that is disproportionately
positive. And this is among those who
have the most external evidence of abundance.
Now if this were the end of my post, you’d be left with a
bit of a thud of the obvious. But it’s
not. For my entire life, I’ve seen a
world that few, if any others can envision.
Not only have I seen possibilities – like mistaking a cactus in the
desert for a moose when I was a little boy (because I saw its ears)
– but I’ve created enterprises around the world that have actually transformed
impossibilities into reality. I know
that the madness of crowds is usually incorrect and, rather than railing
against it, I’ve chosen to build vistas from which observation can evidence a
reality that is masked by the madness. I
know that life is mostly good and I know that, with a bit of coaxing, even the
not-so-good can be made better.
Sometimes, a lot better because it’s been so overlooked and
underutilized. No, what really puzzles
me is why those who state a desire to transform or change are most frequently
the ones who appeal to objections based on scarcity, risk, and fear (the
sinister trinity of incapacity). “If you
take on that company, they could kill you.”
“If you choose to walk away from that project that would compromise your
values, your business could go bankrupt.”
“If you engage with the powerful, they’ll corrupt you.” All warnings that I’ve received from socially
enlightened people while never encountering them in actuality and engagement
with the parties I’ve been told to fear.
Shellfish exposure, according to the research of Canadians
Howse, Gautrin, et al, and others, can lead to considerable allergic reactions
in which a person with no previous symptoms can suddenly have anaphylaxis. You’re going along merrily processing shrimp
or crabs and then, suddenly, one day, your chest tightens, you can’t breathe
and you think you’re going to die. Like
shellfish allergies, encountering people who insist on planning for adversity
in the face of abundant near-certainty, can lead to a cumulative exposure
allergy in which a person like me has had one too many of the “what if”
scenarios pitched and the chest tightening, constricted breathing gets a bit
too much. Unlike the irreversible
shellfish allergy, the scenario-skewness allergy (or SSA, as I like to call it)
is entirely reversible. When you hear
dire predictions of grave uncertainties, you can simply walk away, go about
your day, and at day’s end, celebrate another wonderful day of mediocre
abundance… for which you can be eternally grateful.