Wednesday, August 26, 2009

What a Difference a Quarter Makes

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As promised, I wanted to make sure that we didn’t lose the forest for the trees. With today’s meeting of the FDIC (and the wonderful liquidity conundrum that they face in dealing with the 81st bank closure of the year), we now know that private equity firms seeking to buy troubled banks will need to commit to holding assets for at least 3 years and maintain reserve ratios that are greater than the industry wanted. Ironically, the FDIC is in a Catch-22. On the one hand, they desperately need the market to do their job – namely back the Federal guarantee to banks while maintaining their illusion of control. On the other hand, they realize that traditional capital sources know too many of the dirty secrets about credit quality to pay for catching falling bank stars. However, all this FDIC nonsense is a bit of “deck chairs on the Titanic” for a more significant reason. To race to the punch line, the FDIC failed to consider that the reserve capital they want for market evidence of commitment isn't in the market in a staggering number! Read on.

As promised, I wanted to make sure that you all are tracking the upcoming September release of the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds Accounts data (slated for release on September 17, 2009). The reasons are myriad but one of the big reasons is buried on Table B.100, lines 24-30 on page 102. If you’d like to, you can turn there with me. If not, you can trust me – like you’ve trusted the Federal Reserve for so many years…

In one reporting quarter – from the 4th Q of 2008 to the 1st Q of 2009, life insurance reserves lost $10 billion. During the same period, pension fund reserves lost $500 billion. If you look back just five quarters, you realize that the losses are even more consequential (comparing year end 2007 with 1st Q 2009 where the losses are $31.7 billion and $3.47 trillion, respectively). Now some of you still don’t get why these numbers matter but let me connect some dots for you.

Life insurers remain one of the major contributors to credit enhancement leveraging their reserves for credit guarantees at 15-20 times their face value. So, when you lose $31.7 billion in life insurance reserves, you are really losing enhancement value of $475 billion in credit guarantees which in turn erodes the investment grade of credits totaling up to $5.7 trillion in extended credit. Add to that the real loss from pensions of $3.47 trillion and you realize that patient capital in the amount of $9.17 trillion in investment grade (and reserve qualified) money has vanished from the system. Taken together, and concerning ourselves not one iota about other losses in the system, we have an interesting test of true “market recovery” looming on the horizon – namely, will we have investment grade assets for reserves to support debt markets in growing or shrinking numbers on September 17. In short, the FDIC is counting on a theoretical asset reserve that has ceased to exist and is evaporating at a record rate.

Now, please remember, trained propaganda artists still want you to put your money in the NYSE casino so that they can take it before the next “correction” – which is a euphemism for money that you mistakenly thought was “yours” which was really “theirs”. However, if you look at the fundamentals of what it would take to get a healthy system – using the Federal Reserve’s definition of healthy (which you should know I question on many levels) – we would need to see this vector change. For the record, I am making the audacious prediction that the green shoots are poison ivy and we’re going to develop a serious itch on or around the 17th of September when we find out that we’ve been weaving garlands of green with a seriously flawed botanical awareness. Let’s see.


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Wednesday, August 19, 2009

When Will We Ever Learn?

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Yesterday, the markets shook off Monday’s 2% drop and confirmed that the recession is really, basically over and we should all be back to the heady days of 2007 all over again really soon. Thanks to the surgical intervention by those who “didn’t see the crisis coming”, the market has vindicated these activities and we’re really out of the woods now… really…trust me…

Now I know that there are those of us who look at economic data and see vortices of wailing and gnashing of teeth while we are told to see the resilient hubris of the dons of Gold Men, but let me introduce you to a theme that we’ll be examining here in the next few entries.

Based on the best available data in the U.S., publicly traded companies (approximately 0.01% of all corporations in the U.S.) account for less than 1% of the employment and value creation in the U.S. however, according to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds data, get credit for close to 90% of the reported value of corporate equity in the U.S. Pronouncements about the health of the market – derived from the statistically irrelevant sample of Dow Jones Industrial Average or S&P 500 constituents – are alleged to be indicators of market health and economic failure or success. And, the good news is that the Federal Reserve – as it has no way to measure the value in the vast majority of the engine of our GDP – simply ignores those companies that don’t generate trading income for investment banks. Ironic, isn’t it that our financial mavens come from investment banks that live on the illusion that the pitiful minority of firms who trade stock publicly are all that matter? Friends, if you sat through any statistics course in high school or college, you understand that we have a profound failure of sampling in our diagnostic data.

If we examine the Flow of Funds data, which I am going to report on for the next few entries (assuming I don’t find another distraction) leading up to the much anticipated September reporting, we can see the seeds of the ignorance that led us into the maelstrom and the reason why we’re no closer to escaping it than we were on the glorious day when Merrill’s bull escaped the rodeo only to wind up facing the Matador (trust me, this is going to be a great metaphor in due course).

Let me entice you to read subsequent postings with the following. You know that I’ve been trying to illuminate the colossal risk our domestic industries (to say nothing of Europe and Asia which may actually be worse) have on pension illiquidity and miscalculated leverage on actuarial funds. By using the Fed’s own data I will show you that if they used their own data, they would be sounding alarm bells too but, that, my friends, wouldn’t support the popular message that we’re on the mend. This willful ignorance arises from the convergence of an over-sampling of public company data; an under-sampling of private company leverage; and a failure to understand the dynamics of the actuarial requirements of pensions and their associated risk transfer market components. I’ll do my best to weave these threads into a tapestry that you can explain to your kids. We’re not and our addiction to exuberance and greed is merely prolonging the agony that’s inevitable for those who are unable or unwilling to interrupt the dance of the market madness. More to follow.



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Thursday, August 13, 2009

Business Creation in a Global Recession: Opportunities to Explore New Horizons in Entrepreneurship

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4th Asia Pacific Conference on Business Incubation
August 6-7, 2009
Coimbatore, India


Keynote Address by: Dr. David E. Martin
Executive Chairman, M•CAM Inc.


Batten Fellow, Darden Graduate School of Business Administration,
University of Virginia

Honorable Delegates and Friends,
Few occasions could be imagined that would serve as greater evidence of the unquenchable spark of the human spirit than holding an event organized around the genesis of value creating business against the backdrop of systemic global economic volatility. It is appropriate, at this juncture in the story of modern social evolution to take an honest stock of where we’ve been, where we are, and where wisdom invites us to craft a more ethical and suitable future. Regrettably, when words like “economic crisis” are invoked, we respond with rather unsophisticated reflexes. Reflexes, by their very nature necessitate rapid, unconsidered, hyperactive responses short on the consideration of consequence or collateral damage. Reflexes do not seek, nor do they function with, considered consequence. So it is, that when we hear talk of “recovery” or “market resilience”, we fail to ask whether the pathologic condition that precipitated the current instability is a condition to which we should aspire. Do we want to return to a nostalgic view of a few years ago?

Who among us wish for a return to the optimistic days of 2007? Which one of us long for days when financial innovation involved placing bets – in the form of derivatives and credit default swaps – at 5 times the face value of the global GDP hoping for the failure of our fellow man and the taking of monies from the gullible public? Which one of us longs for the “wealth” that was created by hedge funds generating in excess of 10 times greater returns by betting against the performance of industry rather than investing for a more fruitful future? Who among us would like to see the public and private sector continue to abuse pension funds by leveraging them for short-term usury, failing to consider the social and political upheaval which now looms when the illiquidity of entitlement programs and pensions are evidenced? While we pursued ever faster bit rates to transmit data across the globe, we saw a record number of humanity enter severe malnutrition without a bite to eat. While we obsessed about speculative market returns, we saw a record number of humanity fall deeper into poverty. While we gained efficiency with unconsidered labor outsourcing, we saw a rise of human trafficking. While we spoke of global stewardship and the environment, we saw unchecked expansion in devastating mining and the growth of metals markets which supported paramilitary violence. We celebrated the iPod but turned the seed pod from food into ethanol to charge the batteries for our energy consumption addiction. I, for one, don’t want a return or a recovery. Rather it’s time for reconsideration, reconciliation, and renaissance.

We did not arrive at this point in our economic history by accident. This was not an unanticipated shock that “no one saw coming”. To the contrary, the present conditions were wired into the system from its birth and came to full bloom almost two decades before the spoiled fruit was plucked. While many economists debate the mechanics of the failures – which are many and rather simply discerned – I would like to address three issues which don’t enjoy frequent consideration.

First, we saw unchecked capital disequilibrium where ignorance arbitrage was the rule of the day. For the past two decades, capital migrated from receivables financing and dividend returns from profitable operations to speculative equity with returns from a carnivorous market food-chain where most died and the moderately successful were cannibalized by the few. This condition worsened when the few at the top of the food-chain, lured by “cheap” capital decided to leverage their insatiable desire to consume ever more. Public accountability and its surrogates turned a blind eye to untold abuses in every sector.

Second, under the politically correct construct called “Free Trade”, those framing the schemes removed the very utilities that they used to arrive at their powerful positions insuring that poverty could serve as the outsourcing energy of last resort at all costs. We will revisit this item a bit later.

Finally, greed simply eclipsed rational consideration both for self-preservation and for ecosystem survival. Returns of 30-50% were justified because the knowledge economy was full of risk, we were told. However, what we were not told was that “risk” was a mask used to cover careless due diligence, value chain assessment failure, and opaque dealing.

We now have an opportunity to pursue an alternative path – one that is not foreign to humanity but rather draws on some of the greatest models from the distant and proximal past. This new path involves the perpetual interaction between three macro dynamics which serve as both organizing principles and metrics of performance. They include Innovation Literacy – rightly understanding the core of innovation and its deployment; Gross Innovative Output – linking innovation to commercial consequence using all requisite economic tools and with the customer consumer precedent over the capital source; and, Innovation Recycling – using the fossils of the excesses of the past thirty years as catalysts of new growth.

Some of you are familiar with the epistemology of innovation but it’s worth reminding ourselves that we live with an ever more confused sense of what innovation is and what it is not. There are three distinct dynamics that are too often blended in conversations about innovation. They are:
• Invention: The creation of something entirely new, without precedent or anticipation;
• Innovation: The assembly or contextualization of components and knowledge for a new purpose; and,
• Incrementalism: The nuanced modification of a thing or utility for a specific market purpose.

Most of what we see called invention and innovation isn’t. Most of it is incrementalism and serves only finite, unsustainable purposes. By building civil society structures and proprietary frameworks around it, we afford it consequence that it neither deserves nor does it stimulate “sciences and the useful arts” to use the phrase on intellectual property from the U.S. Constitution.

Innovation is not synonymous with intellectual property. In point of fact, while its purveyors would love to find some shred of data to suggest otherwise, IPR is seldom the core or even the catalyst for successful venture formation and sustainability. In fact, the majority of innovation lives a rather unremarkable life. It is found in internally funded and contracted research, academic pursuits, commercial responses to market demands, and internal enterprise optimizations. Those who wish to say that IP is core to attracting capital need to admit that to date, no effective collateral position exists for IP to be counted as an investment grade asset and in the global market, no jurisdiction on the planet has a reliable treatment of IP in bankruptcy. More dramatically, while subject to general intangible liens, only a fraction of all intangibles are even correctly transferred when enterprises are sold or liquidated.

Innovation illiteracy is prevalent largely to serve as a protectionist utility for multi-national corporations to manipulate and control markets. Therefore, when we consider venture creation, we must address Innovation Literacy. In most of the world, the notion of turning ingenuity into profit is antithetical to local or regional values. The growth of the “Commons” model in the free and open source software movement and the expanding use of the general purpose license or GPL are wonderful examples of the growth of commons stewardship even in markets like the U.S. and Europe. When one focuses on innovation arising from a network – the nature of most endeavors now – one understands that it is the fusion of contributors to that network linked to markets which is the core of enterprise creation – not the access to restrictive, usurious capital seeking its rapid return. Programs like the Heritable Innovation Trust and the Peace Trade initiative have been established to formalize market accountability for programs that engage communities and networks – focusing on the dynamics of value in clusters of entrepreneurial endeavors rather than seeking the isolated lottery winnings for the few. In these and other programs, engagement of the full supply chain in every element of the commercial pursuit not only enhances the opportunity for more ethical treatment of people and their environments but also raises the value of production to include social benefit premiums.

Innovation literacy, put simply, is fundamental to engaging actors within communities around business and market models based on genuine conditions and market dynamics rather than holding out wistful models that are neither true in their telling nor reproducible in their promotion.

This cannot be more clearly critiqued than in the telling of the story of the last 60 years of entrepreneurial activity in the U.S. What the world has never been told is that we didn’t start our economy with angel funds and venture capital. We didn’t have a Constitutional right to an IPO. Rather, the U.S. and Europe deployed protectionist government procurement, aided by expropriated knowledge from enemies and allies, to create pockets of excessive capital that, when fully satiated in their own market hegemony, started capturing other pieces of industry in an ever expanding reach first in our own borders and then around the world. Holding out the false aspiration that others could follow suit, the U.S. promoted the fallacy of its model for others to replicate and without fail, countless nations have followed blindly into models which have left their populace disillusioned and more impoverished. It was government purchasing and preferential purchasing of everything from cars to chemicals to silicon chips that built American wealth – not fair trade. In fact, in the early 1980’s it was our fear of Japanese technology that reinforced our modification of patent laws and investment policy to artificially enhance our innovative position in the world.

In India alone, hundreds of U.S. Patents from thousands of labs have been filed with virtually no commercialization in any fashion. Meanwhile these pieces of property have served to inspire thousands of commercial projects for which no benefit has returned to India. Thousands of plants, heritable knowledge elements and know how has been taken from India with no concerted program to repatriate it or the profits derived therefrom. And all the while, India’s government and those throughout the world, are forced to accept fraudulent patents on medicines and technologies which have been granted in error without any access to equitable relief. In both IPR and trade, the U.S. and Europe utilized their market influence to generate wealth and, having arrived, then created rules forced on the rest of the world to deny the rest of the world the utilities they used in their own ascent.


I am reminded of the image carved into one of New York’s landmark buildings depicting the Auschwitz concentration camp with the inscription “Indifference to Injustice is the Gate to Hell”. Aligning with those who, having used protectionism to gain power, prohibit others from favorable purchasing and consumer dynamic enablement, is participating in an injustice that has cost millions their lives and livelihoods and cannot be tolerated. It is, in the final analysis, the case that any endeavor in business incubation must benefit from market and public policy that is willing to invest in enterprise by being its first customer, not creditor. Gross Innovative Output must be a condition adopted by, and assessed within all levels of tender and procurement and is essential for any nation to integrate if it is to create a dynamic and healthy domestic enterprise environment. The purchasing of locally supplied products and labor, at a premium, has been shown to be the fuel for the U.S., Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and European economies and it must be promoted for the benefit of all nations.

Now we come to my favorite topic – Innovation Recycling. To know me is to know that I have advocated my whole life for accountability in innovation. With over 50 million patents issued around the world covering all manner of technology, good, or service, the world is awash with disclosures of creativity and corruption, transformative enablements and imposters. However, in the past 10 years, this chaos has provided the compost – or recycling – for a new opportunity. During the expansion of the leveraged merger and acquisition markets over the past 15 years, it became quite common for larger integrated companies to acquire smaller innovative companies for one or two core products or capabilities. All in-process and non-core technologies held by the acquired company were abandoned as “non-core”. If a technology didn’t generate over $100 million in annual revenue, it was discarded outright by several major corporations. In short, the majority of acquired innovation was put in the rubbish heap for the short term exploitation of the select few. In every key environmental technology sector, for example, more patents were abandoned and expired into the public domain than all currently enforced commercial platforms. In short, the solutions for everything from distributed power, to fuel cells, to intelligent batteries, to wind, solar, water energy and purification, hydrogen fuel, and much more is available in the Open Source commons as expired and abandoned. This was not because it was useless. Rather it is because it had not yet achieved a level of commercial output to displace the incumbent – often inferior – technology. Every incubator and innovation lab should immediately put in place an active profile of this recyclable asset pool for research, development, repurposing and commercialization. In addition, the innovators, whose work was abandoned and discarded, can be re-enlisted to help bring new life to their discarded and overlooked creativity enabling new models of value creation and social network exchanges.

This type innovation network re-engagement facilitates what I refer to as “Fusion Networks” where we catalyze industrial and gross innovation output with the same restrictive properties – now in the public domain – that had precluded earlier use and adoption. By seeing what has been done and learning from barriers to commercialization, the emerging entrepreneur can pre-qualify countless resources that were once thought to preclude engagement and now repurpose these into value components. This open source innovation stewardship views innovation in the appropriate light of what it is – namely, a utility of enterprise, not the enterprise in and of itself. By right-sizing awareness of interdependency, the common impediment to incubation emanating from the innovator seeing him or herself as the exclusive enabler is mitigated with evidence sourced from numerous inputs provided by innovation recycling.

The journey towards a future integrating innovation literacy, gross innovative output and innovation recycling can begin here today. In point of fact, it has begun whether we like it or not. There will be no Silicon Valley or Bavarian economic miracle in India because it wasn’t a miracle where the legends started. Exploitative capital will not build the next economy or the next nation. By educating ourselves to see that value – and all the dimensions of wealth – manifest when we focus on humanity rather than the artifacts created thereby we can create models of providential wealth which create lasting industry with purpose rather than short term punctuated equilibriums of extractive excess. Rather than teaching our entrepreneurs how to win exclusively, we can support efforts to expand the use of and contribution to the commons. As David Bollier points out in his book Viral Spiral, the rise of social network utilities on the internet has already catalyzed the emergence of economic innovation not considered just 5 or 10 years ago. This dynamic can spread to other domains.

Specifically, we recommend that discussions of capital access be replaced with discussions of customer facilitation and value recognition. Realizing that investment is constrained to achieve a neutral effect – a dollar invested is a dollar spent – where as market validation is value accretive and capable of supporting ethical financial services, our efforts should be to map and then facilitate market access. At a public policy and NGO level, this means purchasing from local SMEs and, when larger tenders are constructed for national procurements, governments should insist on the use of innovation recycling, open source innovation and facilitate the same through the use of Global Innovation Credits. This scheme allows a government to purchase from suppliers who are ethically using open source and charging premiums only where genuine new effort and innovation is required.

Today, as we kick off the 4th Asia Pacific Conference on Business Incubation, let us commit to ourselves and the world that we will apply the same level of innovation to our thoughts and deliberations as we expect from our entrepreneurial community. Let us not perpetuate the myths and legends which have cost global economies billions of dollars in futile social and business infrastructure and at least three decades of fruitless wandering. Rather, let us rise in this occasion to the new day. A day which sees Heritable Innovation honored, that sees domestic production and innovation validated with customers, and that sees the masses rise on the innovation recycled from neglect and misuse and repurposed for a cleaner, greener, ethicological future.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Global Financial Crisis “Killed” by Unbridled Optimism

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Is that like “irrational exuberance”?


The Sydney Daily Telegraph ran the 98pt font headline “IT’S OVER” this morning followed by the tagline about the crisis being killed by optimism. As Australians awoke to this news, I was struck with the irony that there were two “truths” in this hype (I’ll save my review of the falsehoods for another day).

First, for the banks who swindled American and European governments in getting dollar for dollar insurance for derivative disasters – now topped up with taxpayer funds – their crisis is over. Once again management and well informed investors have walked away with more cash leaving the gap between monetary riches even greater between the haves and have nots. Second, IT really is OVER. So there you have it. The tyranny of the past – architected by closely held interests since Bretton Woods – have satisfied themselves that they’re on sure footing… for now.

However, on this day, let me tell you about another “IT’S OVER” that’s worth celebrating. On this day, an unprecedented thing happened which will genuinely change the face of the future. Ignorance arbitrage and information asymmetry were dealt a fatal blow with the stroke of three pens today.

In a long forgotten corner of the world in East New Britain, Papua New Guinea, the three Chachet (Baining) presidents – from the Inland, Lassul and Sinivit Local Level governments – signed the first ever letter outlining grievances against the Toronto Stock Exchange listed New Guinea Gold Corporation (TSX-V: NGG) – and sent it to the head of compliance at the Exchange. People who have lived for generations without a voice and without access to justice took a stand and began a journey to bring transparency into one of the most hideous abuses humanity has tolerated – namely, the irrational lust for gold at all costs. Led by the courage of the President of the Sinivit Local Level government, the Hon. Boniface Setavo, these presidents stood for their people and their land and have moved Archimedes’ fulcrum.

Should you be interested in a copy of the letter – see the following and I encourage you and all your friends to write to the Toronto Stock Exchange and help call for accountability for those who have lived without justice. Together, we can let that which is “over” be replaced with something which honors transparency, ethical behavior, benefit sharing, and ecological harmony.


_____________________

Phone +675 983 9011 P.O. Box 1974
Fax: +675 983 9012 Rabaul, ENBP


24 July 2009

Joanne Butz
Compliance and Disclosure - Office of Enforcement
Toronto Stock Exchange
Fax: 403 234 4305
E-mail: joanne.butz@tsxventure.com

Office of Complaints or Concerns
Fax: 604 688 6051
E-mail: complianceanddisclosure@tsxventure.com

Dear Ms. Butz,

In my capacity as the President of the Sinivit Local Level Government (LLG) and in joint partnership with two Chachet (Baining) Presidents of Inland and Lassul LLG’s of the Province of East New Britain, Papua New Guinea, we are kindly requesting your consideration of a matter regarding a corporation operating within our province and listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, namely, New Guinea Gold Corporation (TSX-V: NGG). NGG commenced production of gold from its Sinivit mine – operating in my jurisdiction – without the appropriate agreements mandated by the National Government of the Independent State of Papua New Guinea and without consummating a binding agreement with the landowners of the Sinivit Local Level Government for which I am the President. This operating condition is in violation of the Mining Act of 1992, as amended, of the Independent State of Papua New Guinea.

While this dereliction of compliance with our laws is a matter for our law enforcement to manage, my correspondence with you regards matters that relate to your own oversight and enforcement considerations. At the end of 2008, our respective LLG offices requested the services of M•CAM Inc. to assist us in the investigation of the financial reporting of the NGG operations. As we were unable to gain a clear picture of their operations directly, we asked M•CAM’s financial investigations unit to compile all of the financial statements, press releases and corporate communications of NGG for our own internal investigation. What we found was informative and presents both you and us with significant cause for concern.

First, we found that NGG has been selling gold (outside of compliance with the laws of the Independent State of Papua New Guinea) since May 2008. The company’s statements about commencing production are inconsistent in their published reports to shareholders, along with their report of sales, and may represent misleading statements under your regulations.

Second, in a report issued by NGG on May 20, 2009, the company reported that it had sold CAD$6,185,000 in gold sales to date. In the same report, they state that they have between CAD$7-8 million in recoverable gold in leaching vats as of March 2009. In their most recent audited financial statement, the company makes a reference to royalty payments obligated to undisclosed interests along with other net operating loss items including refining costs but at no point does the company make reference to, nor itemize, any of their obligations to the National or Provincial Government or the local landowners with whom they should have, but have not concluded, an operating agreement – none of which have been paid. Under their “Legal Proceedings” section of their report, the company states that they have “no contingent liabilities”.

Regrettably, one of the most troubling pieces of information from the Company’s 2008 statement to shareholders was the fact that Gold Mines of Niugini Holdings (the shell corporation owning 10% of NGG and the counter-party to the draft Memorandum of Agreement with the Uramot local landowner group) had been assessed over CAD$1,800,000 in debt for operations. So not only have the landowners and the Province received no financial benefit for this operation but rather, they are beset with the environmental damage and massive debt as a result of the “shareholder” status in a shell corporation which is assessed debt but does not currently report any intent to pay out dividends. Under the breached 1996 Memorandum of Agreement, no understanding was made between the parties to authorize the assumption of debt or the accrual of interest charges by, or obligated to, the Uramot Company Limited or any other entity associated with the mine.

Finally, on June 1, 2009, the company issued a press release stating that, “NEW GUINEA GOLD REPORTS FIRST PROFITABLE QUARTER IN Q1, 2009”. This statement included a report that the net profit was primarily attributable to “$69,162 (quarter ended March 31, 2008: $nil) of interest charges accrued on the long term debtor owed by the Company’s Mt Sinivit mine joint venture partner’s share of capital and operating costs.” Creating a majority held company, charging it interest, and then declaring the interest as income for the sake of profit, appears to be misleading and creates a cause for concern given the questionable legitimacy of the partner/debtor entity.

The company was put on notice of a Breach of the 1996 Memorandum of Agreement between it and the Uramot Company Limited on the 13th of February 2009. We have not seen evidence of this reported to shareholders. A company representative made reference to a payment due to parties in Papua New Guinea in an article in The National (one of our two national papers) and alleged that it had not yet been paid as the company was waiting to have a counter-party to which it is obligated. We have not seen evidence of the amount or the assent to obligation made by the company in any of its reports to shareholders.

While our National and Provincial grievances with New Guinea Gold Corporation are well beyond what are enumerated herein, these matters are materially and adversely impacting our confidence in the operations of New Guinea Gold Corporation and are calling into question our belief that the Toronto Stock Exchange rules on reporting, accountability and transparency are being adequately assessed or enforced. I would welcome your cooperation in an inquiry into the above-referenced matters and trust that we can work together to see stockholders’ in Canada and stakeholders’ in Papua New Guinea interests protected.

I submit for your information and consideration,

Yours Faithfully,


HON. BONIFACE M. SETAVO, MPA
President – Sinivit Baining LLG

HON. BERNARD KULAP
President – Lassul Baining LLG

HON. ANDREW KUSAK
President – Inland Baining LLG


Cc: The Honorable Leo Dion, CMG, QPM, MP
Governor East New Britain Province

The Mine Manager
Sinivit Gold Mine Project
P.O. Box 808
KOKOPO
East New Britain Province
Independent State of Papua New Guinea

Provincial Administrator
East New Britain Provincial Government

Mr. Kepas Wali
Chief Executive Officer
Mineral Resources Authority
kwali@mra.gov.pg


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Friday, July 10, 2009

Death Tax on Stuff

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The Obsolescing of Planned Obsolescence Economies

In an effort to stem the frugality of the populace during the Great Depression, Bernard London wrote a compelling piece on “Ending the Depression Through Planned Obsolescence.” His thesis ran something like this… if the public doesn’t spend, the economy can’t recover… therefore, we need the public to spend more… therefore we must punish a person who possesses or uses a product longer than its statistical life and actually begin to tax continued use after depreciation had run its course. This concept and phrase – coined in 1932 – was popularized by the great Industrial Design engineer Brooks Stevens who, in 1954, claimed to have coined the term. A tiny irony captured by the fortunate documentary work of my dear friend Chip Duncan (www.duncanentertainment.com) who had the foresight to interview Stevens before his death.

Brooks Stevens (and his ignored muse Bernard London) lived in a time when two consequences of his admonitions were either unconsidered or relegated to infinite improbability. Both men failed to realize that, in promoting a public good where consumers seek something “a little newer, a little better, a little sooner than is necessary,” the drain on natural resources and energy must be viewed as relatively infinite and of nominal cost. Further, they failed to acknowledge the axiomatic imperative that consumers actually purchase with wages, not credit. The ignorance of both of these implicit assumptions has portended the end of their reign of indifferent, immoral consumerism. In Duncan’s interview, Stevens makes the statement that no company would be so “diabolical” to actually create cheap or inferior products to pass along to customers so that they would have to constantly buy more stuff. Does anyone see an irony in the fact that Stevens made this assumption around the same time as a little retailer of cheap stuff was getting off the ground in an anonymous corner of America – Bentonville Arkansas?

On July 9, 2009, the last of my Phase I forecasts for the collapse of the current economic system came into sharp focus. The realization that credit card debt – the cloaked specter that has been luring the public and politicians alike to try to solve a faux “real estate” crisis – has finally hit the collective consciousness. Congratulations – it only took a few years from my Arlington Institute “House of Cards” speech to discover what has been known and reported since the late 1990’s. U.S. banks are acknowledging that they stand on the precipice of massive consumer credit default exposures just in time for the summer holidays. And, at the same time, the People’s Bank of China lent almost 25% of the country’s GDP in new credit issuance within China fueling a gross domestic product growth which could top 8 percent this year. The difference between Chinese borrowing and U.S. borrowing is that the U.S. debt was actually being purchased by international interests – the Chinese debt is being recycled into their economy. China, the producer of last resort for the London Stevens Maelstrom of consumption, is now inverting its economy having built manufacturing and energy infrastructure financed by the excesses of the West. They have optioned energy, agriculture, water, and other resources from Tonga to Timbuktu and have out-maneuvered the U.S. and Europe at every turn. And now, they are ready to make their next bold move…

What if their friend and gold miner extraordinaire Robert Friedland suggests that, with China’s abundance of gold reserves and mineral reserves, it adopts an actual or synthetic gold standard to back the Renminbi? Could the Asian Century that Friedland has forecast have it’s auspicious beginning this year and has the Bretton Woods dollar denominated consumerism just met its phantasmal end in accordance with the London Stevens Maelstrom? Watch Ivanhoe Mines and ask yourself, what if….?


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Friday, June 26, 2009

To Have and To Hold Until Life Insurance Do Us Part

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I was delighted to learn from today’s Wall Street Journal that next Tuesday, at AIG’s annual meeting, the U.S. taxpayers will be represented as they are now the largest shareholders. As a taxpayer, I surveyed my mail and found that apparently my proxy statement must have been lost by the U.S. Postal Service so I’m writing to ask the rest of you to “Vote No” to the board and its plans. Here’s why.

In what is clearly a Ponzi scheme by any definition, the Fed is about to receive, unless interrupted by shareholders “bonds valued at up to $8.5 billion backed by life-insurance policies, which could cut the Fed debt,” according to the WSJ and corporate statements. The Fed, for all of our benefit is NOT an organization which benefits the U.S. taxpayer and placing life insurance annuities into the Fed’s hands is an extremely bad idea. The Federal Reserve does not have any business benefitting from life insurance annuities and income ahead of the taxpayers. And, equally challenging, those beneficiaries who have policies which now are being leveraged to manage AIG’s balance sheet, my not be excited to know that the liquidity that is called upon at death is now leveraged by an insolvent financial institution which hasn’t been able to manage hundreds of billions of dollars that have been minted by the Treasury. Using funds from one investor to pay off another is the core of Ponzi scams and this one is epic in proportion. Come to think of it, if the three government trustees representing our interests want to have qualified expertise to execute their current plans, we should see about getting Bernie Madoff on the board candidate list and select R. Allen Sanford as an alternate.

It would be a great idea to have all AIG life insurance policy holders and beneficiaries, to look carefully at their contracts to see if they actually authorized the assignment of their funds for use in this fashion. Wouldn’t it be fun if the fine print – that nemesis of transparency – actually rendered AIG and U.S. government actions impossible or illegal? Wouldn’t it be fun if someone actually woke up and realized that the taxpayer’s interests are not only being overlooked but, more tragically, the fiduciary trust of life-insurance is now being gambled in a government sanctioned Ponzi scheme?

Like I said, I didn’t get my proxy statement. Maybe it was the failure of the postal system. Maybe it was because AIG doesn’t have me on their favorite shareholder list. During my frequent visits to 70 Pine St. in the financial district in Manhattan, I did not always leave having made the best impression when suggesting that accountability and collateral integrity had value. Regardless, I trust that the rest of you show up for the meeting and vote “no”.

After the vote, I hope that one person has the courage to stand up and ask for genuine accountability. In the $173 billion of “aid” (isn’t it nice to know that we’ve no longer even come to refer to this as “bailout” or “debt” but now refer to this in the same way we’d refer to providing AIDS or malaria treatments to our neighbors around the world?) we must have crossed some threshold where we as taxpayers and policy holders are entitled to have genuine accounting for this mess. Obama’s promise of transparency in government can no longer be squashed under the pejorative assumption that it’s too difficult to understand. Tell the truth. As I’ve written before, the pension exposure here is already toxic. Turning the contractual obligations on life insurance benefits over to the Fed is adding insult to injury.

In his up-coming book, The Twelve: 12.21.12 Time Is Running Out, William Gladstone concludes :

“Truth, integrity, and love are what will always matter most in life. The shift that is coming will highlight these simple values, which have been known throughout the ages. As a species and planet, we are facing huge challenges, but the first steps are to wake up to who you really are and wake up as many others as you can.”

Don’t hit the snooze button and go back to sleep. Wake up. Let your friends and colleagues know that the paradigms of contract, public accountability, vows, and trusts all need to be invited into the agora and need to be reclaimed so that commitments made for life are honored.

I will be off-line for the coming week as our family – Colleen, Kate, and Zach and I – partner with 25 others in Reynosa Mexico where we’ll be building houses with our dear friends who work to provide shelter for the displaced homeless in this land of NAFTA’s nightmare. I am deeply grateful to many of you who have contributed to allow us to take the largest group we’ve ever led. The houses and roofs that we build will have your spirit in every sweat soaked line of mortar. While we sweat under the sweltering sun, I trust that you will celebrate a new form of Independence on July 4th. Rather than toasting an event of tax revolt and violence – I trust that you will find ways to share in celebrations of independence from the consensus and tyranny of greed and fear and do so with dependent and interdependent communities wherever you find yourself.

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For more posts… visit www.invertedalchemy.blogspot.com

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Friday, June 12, 2009

A Flock of Black Swans Just Landed

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Well friends, we have been discussing the next phase of the economic collapse for some time and I just wanted to point out that a flock of Black Swans just landed (thank you Nassim for the metaphor). In a rather inconspicuous gesture, this morning saw the announcement by The Hartford (the 200-year legacy life and property insurer) that they are taking $3.4 billion in TARP funds and selling up to $750 million of common stock. What makes this significant is what their liquidity challenges represent.

For sometime, I’ve been advising that the reason why Washington is scrambling to put bandages on the hemorrhaging patients in the economy is because there is a greater (and known to at least some of them) specter looming in the darkness. The unholy cover-up seeks to mask the fact that the much touted illiquidity of entitlements (in the form of Social Security and health care obligations) are real but the greater exposure is the significant lack of capital to meet contracted payment obligations in the private sector. Life insurers, annuity managers, pension managers, and others – all who were all too happy to scoop fat fees off of managing investments – are not only undercapitalized to meet obligations but, more unfortunately, the safety net in the PBGC is also illiquid. I seem to be alone in pointing out that the AIG bailout had nothing to do with the importance of insurance (look at the fact that AIG doesn’t want to pay for the US Airways Hudson River miracle) but it served as a money-laundering facility to push funds to banks and other financial institutions with whom AIG had counter-party credit risks. However, the laundry exercise was a smokescreen for a greater risk that The Hartford and Allianz balance sheet uncovers – namely that the pension guaranties, together with life insurance obligations – two stalwarts of American retirement comfort – are in massive trouble and that shoe is falling now.

In case you’re not convinced, ask yourself why unions wound up with so much of the automotive bankruptcies. It’s not to confuse the line between management and labor (thus causing Keynes to do back-flips in his grave) but rather it is to shield the public from seeing the degree to which pensions have been short-changed and mismanaged.

“The Armageddon-risk is off the table,” according to Hartford’s Chairman and Chief Executive Ramani Ayer in his June 12, 2009 interview on CNBC. That’s good because it never was on the table. As I discuss in my radio interview which will be broadcast Monday, June 15 on VoiceAmerica, we’ve got some serious reckoning coming and a tiny piece of tribulation and judgment may be served in the main dining room. No dark horsemen – just a few black swans!


For more encouraging reading, check out the two previous posts from the Chicago Globalization for the Common Good Conference.

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